Forecasting the 2020 US Elections - Michael Lewis-Beck and Colin Lewis-Beck | November 5/6, 2020

NCHU Announcement 中興大學公告 In forecasting US presidential elections, there are different scientific approaches. First, there are structural models of political scientists that offer theory-driven regression equations . However, the most popular approach involves poll watching, led by data journalists who mine vote intention surveys. . Finally, there are lesser known, but promising methods, such as citizen forecasting. In this presentation, we consider the well-known Political Economy Model, using it as a basis of comparison with The Economist Model, which relies mainly on voter intentions. We contrast both these approaches to a citizen forecasting experiment based on a state-by-state survey of voter expectations. By way of conclusion, these approaches are evaluated in light of the 2020 presidential election results.