Forecasting the 2020 US Elections - Michael Lewis-Beck and Colin Lewis-Beck | November 5/6, 2020

Posted on Friday, Oct 16, 2020
NCHU Announcement 中興大學公告 In forecasting US presidential elections, there are different scientific approaches. First, there are structural models of political scientists that offer theory-driven regression equations . However, the most popular approach involves poll watching, led by data journalists who mine vote intention surveys. . Finally, there are lesser known, but promising methods, such as citizen forecasting. In this presentation, we consider the well-known Political Economy Model, using it as a basis of comparison with The Economist Model, which relies mainly on voter intentions. We contrast both these approaches to a citizen forecasting experiment based on a state-by-state survey of voter expectations. By way of conclusion, these approaches are evaluated in light of the 2020 presidential election results.

Event information

Date: November 05, 2020 [US Central time] | November 06, 2020 [Taiwan]

Time: 20:00 - 22:00 [US Central time] | 10:00 - 12:00 [Taiwan]

Speakers: Michael Lewis-Beck and Colin Lewis-Beck, University of Iowa